FC Tulsa 3-0 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Oct 2025

FC Tulsa
3-0 HT 1-0
Lexington
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

FC Tulsa vs Lexington Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.51
6+ Goals
8%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Tulsa v Lexington — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.95/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.34
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.1 Crosses 14.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

FC Tulsa vs Lexington Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lexington
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.66 xG 0.10
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
165 Passes 401
66% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
19.05.2025 Lexington Lexington 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP

FC Tulsa 3-0 Lexington — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
3-0
AWAY Lexington
1.65 xG 0.40
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
196 Passes 274
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
39 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa ran out comfortable winners over Lexington 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 44% of the ball to Lexington's 56%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.65 to 0.40.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Lexington?

FC Tulsa 3-0 Lexington in the USL Championship on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 44%, draw 29%, Lexington 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✗ Under 2.5
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