Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-0 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.40/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.30
+18% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.7 Crosses 18.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.99 xG 1.28
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
424 Passes 285
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 2-2 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
13.08.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.10.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-2 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
4-0
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.73 xG 0.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
272 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 23
8 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies ran out comfortable winners over Monterey Bay 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 49% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 51%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.73 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.33 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Monterey Bay?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 50%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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