Miami FC 3-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.7pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 49%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
1.07/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.92
-17% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +44%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
15.7 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.90 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
373 Passes 328
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2025 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
06.10.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 0-4 HT 0-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
05.05.2024 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
17.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
25.03.2023 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-1 HT 0-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
10.07.2022 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-1 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
3-1
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.82 xG 1.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
361 Passes 195
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
14 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miami FC beat Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Miami FC had 60% of the ball to Pittsburgh Riverhounds's 40%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.82 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pittsburgh Riverhounds led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Miami FC and 2.17 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Miami FC 3-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USL Championship on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pittsburgh Riverhounds win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 29%, draw 30%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 41%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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