Almere City vs Ajax II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Almere City v Ajax II — Team-Based Signals
Almere City vs Ajax II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Almere City 3-2 Ajax II — Actual Match Statistics
Almere City nicked a narrow win over Ajax II 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Almere City as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (73%), both teams to score (62%) came home.
Under the surface, Almere City had 46% of the ball to Ajax II's 54%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 4.06 to 1.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Almere City's control.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almere City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Almere City and 1.50 for Ajax II.
Almere City vs Ajax II Result & Final Score
Almere City 3 - 2 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Almere City vs Ajax II Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Almere City 67%, draw 17%, Ajax II 16%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almere City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.