Almere City vs Ajax II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Almere City v Ajax II — Team-Based Signals
Almere City vs Ajax II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Almere City
HOL2
2-3
HT 1-2
Ajax II
HOL2
1-3
HT 1-2
Almere City
HOL2
2-4
HT 1-1
Ajax II
HOL2
1-0
HT 0-0
Ajax II
HOL2
1-4
HT 0-3
Almere City
HOL2
Almere City 3-2 Ajax II — Actual Match Statistics
Almere City nicked a narrow win over Ajax II 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Almere City as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Almere City had 46% of the ball to Ajax II's 54%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 4.06 to 1.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Almere City's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almere City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Almere City and 1.50 for Ajax II.
What was the final score of Almere City vs Ajax II?
Almere City 3-2 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Almere City vs Ajax II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Almere City 63%, draw 16%, Ajax II 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almere City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.