Roda 2-3 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.14
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.32
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
16%
4.64
X/2
10%
9.03
X/X
7%
5.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.5
2/2
9%
6.52
2/X
7%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.5 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
52%
+1.7pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.60/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.44
-16% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
19.8 Crosses 10.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.84 xG 1.08
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
338 Passes 323
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.02.2025 Roda Roda 3-3 HT 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.08.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 6-1 HT 4-1 Roda Roda HOL2
05.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
06.10.2023 Roda Roda 3-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
13.03.2023 Roda Roda 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
07.11.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
2-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.63 xG 1.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 8
311 Passes 312
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roda vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II nicked a narrow win over Roda 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Roda at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Roda had 51% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 49%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.63 to 1.10 — the balance of chances actually favoured Roda.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roda and 2.17 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Roda vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Roda 2-3 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Roda 54%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar II 24%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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