Helmond Sport 2-4 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.89
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
15%
4.19
X/2
5%
11.7
X/X
8%
6.53
2/1
6%
20.45
2/2
7%
8.99
2/X
5%
17.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.1pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
0.94/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.82
-26% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
372 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
20.3 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-0D-4L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.24 xG 1.36
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
396 Passes 338
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.03.2025 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 4-0 HT 3-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
27.10.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
05.04.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
08.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
07.04.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
04.11.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-0 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
2-4
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.84 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 8
12 Corners 2
389 Passes 295
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht saw off Helmond Sport 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Helmond Sport at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 56% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 44%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.84 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht?

Helmond Sport 2-4 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 61%, draw 20%, MVV Maastricht 19%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Helmond Sport) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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