Helmond Sport 4-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Mar 2025

Helmond Sport
4-0 HT 3-0
MVV Maastricht
📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.78
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
15%
5.02
X/2
8%
7.23
X/X
10%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.55
2/2
17%
4.88
2/X
8%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Helmond Sport v MVV Maastricht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.39/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.60
+16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.3 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
1W-0D-5L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.01 xG 1.11
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
420 Passes 332
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
05.04.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
08.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
07.04.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
04.11.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-0 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
01.04.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2

Helmond Sport 4-0 MVV Maastricht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
4-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.33 xG 1.74
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 14
11 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
352 Passes 288
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport ran out comfortable winners over MVV Maastricht 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Helmond Sport as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 53% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 47%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 2.33 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.33 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht?

Helmond Sport 4-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 43%, draw 26%, MVV Maastricht 31%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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