De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.18
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
18%
5.67
X/2
10%
6.44
X/X
8%
5.73
2/1
6%
22.55
2/2
8%
3.86
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
41%
+8.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.7pp
27%
Away Win
34%
-7.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.1pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.51/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.74
-4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
26.2 Crosses 19.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Excelsior
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 1.05
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
354 Passes 284
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 3-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.01.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
17.09.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
19.03.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
05.10.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
01.11.2019 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-1
AWAY Excelsior
0.74 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
309 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap edged past Excelsior 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 49% of the ball to Excelsior's 51%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.74 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Excelsior?

De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 50%, draw 23%, Excelsior 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
7 Mar 2025
22:00 FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse Analysis →
22:00 Roda vs PSV II Analysis →
22:00 VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II Analysis →
22:00 Den Bosch vs Cambuur Analysis →
22:00 Emmen vs ADO Den Haag Analysis →
22:00 Helmond Sport vs MVV Maastricht Analysis →