Roda 2-1 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Mar 2025

Roda
2-1 HT 0-1
PSV II
📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.61
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.59
2-3 Goals
42%
2.0
4-5 Goals
24%
2.47
6+ Goals
10%
5.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.59 — our 24% vs market 12.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.2
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.16
X/2
7%
13.3
X/X
11%
7.69
2/1
7%
18.5
2/2
8%
9.72
2/X
7%
18.15
Value flag · X/1 at 4.16 — our 23% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.5pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.3pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.9pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -13%
1.71/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.00
-10% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
385 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.4 Crosses 12.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-2D-1L
AWAY PSV II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.27 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
378 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2024 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
01.04.2024 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 2-2 Roda Roda HOL2
08.12.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
03.04.2023 PSV II PSV II 5-1 HT 3-0 Roda Roda HOL2
09.09.2022 Roda Roda 1-1 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
18.03.2022 PSV II PSV II 3-3 HT 3-2 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
2-1
AWAY PSV II
2.23 xG 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
26 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
219 Passes 340
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
45 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roda vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda edged past PSV II 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Roda had 42% of the ball to PSV II's 58%, shots finished 26-18, expected goals 2.23 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Roda and 2.33 for PSV II.

What was the final score of Roda vs PSV II?

Roda 2-1 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Roda 55%, draw 25%, PSV II 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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