VVV-Venlo 1-0 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
8.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.81
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.16
X/2
11%
7.23
X/X
10%
5.34
2/1
7%
22.1
2/2
15%
4.75
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.21/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.61
-39% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
25.8 Crosses 12.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ajax II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.39
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
269 Passes 469
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.11.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 0-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
03.05.2024 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
06.10.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
28.04.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
24.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
25.04.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 6-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
1-0
AWAY Ajax II
2.17 xG 0.45
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo edged past Ajax II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had VVV-Venlo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 43% of the ball to Ajax II's 57%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.17 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VVV-Venlo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.83 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II?

VVV-Venlo 1-0 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 43%, draw 25%, Ajax II 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VVV-Venlo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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