Norwich City 1-1 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
34%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.12
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 29% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.39
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.65
X/1
14%
4.35
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
8.1
X/X
10%
5.49
2/1
6%
21.75
2/2
9%
5.65
2/X
5%
14.0
Value flag · X/2 at 8.1 — our 19% vs market 8.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-9.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+8.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norwich City EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 29%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
1.41/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/3.22
-67% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 70%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
7.0 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norwich City
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
15 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
01.05.2010 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-3 HT 0-2 Norwich City Norwich City İN1
03.10.2009 Norwich City Norwich City 5-1 HT 4-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norwich City
1-1
AWAY Bristol Rovers
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Norwich City vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norwich City and Bristol Rovers shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Norwich City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Norwich City had 62% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 38%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Norwich City had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Norwich City and 0.50 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Norwich City vs Bristol Rovers?

Norwich City 1-1 Bristol Rovers in the England - FA Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 41%, draw 25%, Bristol Rovers 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Norwich City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Norwich City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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