Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Umm Salal v Al Gharafa — Team-Based Signals
Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Umm Salal 2-3 Al Gharafa — Actual Match Statistics
Al Gharafa squeezed past Umm Salal 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) came home.
Under the surface, Al Gharafa saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.69 to 1.66.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 5 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.00 a game for Umm Salal against 2.67 for Al Gharafa.
Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Result & Final Score
Umm Salal 2 - 3 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 06/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 21%, draw 22%, Al Gharafa 57%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.