Connahs Quay 1-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 6 Feb 2026

📅06/02/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
47%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-2.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +19%
1.90/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.28
+16% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2026 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
23.09.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
03.12.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.09.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
17.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
15.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
1-1
AWAY Caernarfon Town
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay and Caernarfon Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 48% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 52%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Connahs Quay and 2.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Connahs Quay 1-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 06/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 51%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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