Caernarfon Town 2-2 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Jan 2026

📅13/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
51%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
31%
-9.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
51%
Away Win
44%
+7.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +23%
1.61/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.74
+37% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +54%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
273 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Connahs Quay
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
03.12.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.09.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
17.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
15.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
02.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town and Connahs Quay shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.33 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Caernarfon Town 2-2 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 13/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 21%, draw 27%, Connahs Quay 51%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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