Penybont 1-1 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Jan 2026

📅13/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
34%
3.45
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.86
Over 2.5
40%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.48
6+ Goals
7%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 34% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.5pp
33%
Draw
26%
+7.8pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-1.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.09/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.21
-36% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +38%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cardiff MU
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2025 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
14.03.2025 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
24.01.2025 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
31.12.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
18.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALWK
15.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont and Cardiff MU couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Penybont and 1.00 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Cardiff MU?

Penybont 1-1 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Premier League on 13/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penybont 44%, draw 33%, Cardiff MU 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penybont), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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