Cardiff MU 0-4 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
48%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
12%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-3.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 56%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.23/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.66
+18% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +65%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Penybont
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2025 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
24.01.2025 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
31.12.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
18.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALWK
15.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
26.12.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff MU
0-4
AWAY Penybont
56% Ball Possession 44%
3 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont swept aside Cardiff MU 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cardiff MU had 56% of the ball to Penybont's 44%, shots finished 3-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.17 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Penybont?

Cardiff MU 0-4 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 25%, draw 27%, Penybont 49%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
23 Sep 2025
21:45 Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town Analysis →
21:45 The New Saints vs Flint Town United Analysis →
21:45 Briton Ferry vs Llanelli Town Analysis →
21:45 Haverfordwest County vs Barry Town Analysis →
21:45 Colwyn Bay vs Bala Town Analysis →