Connahs Quay 1-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.27
Draw
17%
3.45
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.29
Over 2.5
64%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.49
No
39%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.71
6+ Goals
13%
7.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
5%
2/1
9%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+5.3pp
17%
Draw
26%
-8.1pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.8pp
36%
Under 2.5
40%
-3.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
60%
+3.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
63%
-1.9pp
39%
BTTS No
37%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
0.94/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.76
-40% / +101% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
278 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.09.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
17.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
15.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
02.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 6-1 HT 5-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town edged past Connahs Quay 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Connahs Quay and 1.67 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Connahs Quay 1-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 45%, draw 17%, Caernarfon Town 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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