Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Newport City v Baglan Dragons — Team-Based Signals
Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
Baglan Dragons squeezed past Newport City 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Newport City at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Newport City had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Newport City and 1.25 for Baglan Dragons.
What was the final score of Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
Newport City 1-2 Baglan Dragons in the Wales - FAW Championship on 06/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
Before kick-off our model rated a Newport City win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Newport City 57%, draw 20%, Baglan Dragons 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newport City) went the other way.