Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
47%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.51
6+ Goals
9%
24.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
5.29
1/2
9%
30.5
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1
13%
6.69
X/2
16%
4.83
X/X
11%
4.0
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
22%
3.21
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
29%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
47%
Away Win
42%
+4.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
0.96/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.08
-26% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +37%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
17.1 Crosses 13.7
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.84 xG 2.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
396 Passes 480
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-3 HT 1-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
11.02.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
25.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İSPK
23.12.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
06.08.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla HAZ
04.03.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 6-1 HT 2-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
1-2
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.89 xG 1.36
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
361 Passes 474
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid edged past Sevilla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sevilla had 44% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 56%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.89 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sevilla and 2.17 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 25%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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