Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sevilla v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Sevilla
İS1
1-1
HT 0-0
Sevilla
HAZ
6-1
HT 2-1
Sevilla
İS1
Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid edged past Sevilla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sevilla had 44% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 56%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.89 to 1.36.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sevilla and 2.17 for Atletico Madrid.
What was the final score of Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 25%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.