Forge 1-0 Cavalry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.75
2-3 Goals
34%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.9
6+ Goals
8%
18.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.9 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
13%
1/X
13%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.1pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.5pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cavalry EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.10/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.19
+9% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.1 Crosses 13.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cavalry
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.91 xG 1.48
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
354 Passes 347
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Cavalry Cavalry 2-1 HT 2-0 Forge Forge KAPL
27.10.2024 Forge Forge 0-1 HT 0-1 Cavalry Cavalry KAPL
08.09.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 1-0 Cavalry Cavalry KAPL
22.07.2024 Cavalry Cavalry 1-1 HT 0-0 Forge Forge KAPL
09.06.2024 Cavalry Cavalry 1-0 HT 0-0 Forge Forge CAPL
13.04.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 0-0 Cavalry Cavalry CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
1-0
AWAY Cavalry
0.68 xG 1.93
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
292 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Forge vs Cavalry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge edged past Cavalry 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 33% / 35%) promised a tight game; Forge found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Forge had 46% of the ball to Cavalry's 54%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.68 to 1.93 — on chances, Cavalry could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cavalry led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Forge and 1.17 for Cavalry.

What was the final score of Forge vs Cavalry?

Forge 1-0 Cavalry in the Kanada - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Cavalry?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cavalry win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Forge 32%, draw 33%, Cavalry 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cavalry), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cavalry) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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