Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 6 Apr 2026

📅06/04/2026 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.92
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.61
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
12%
4.83
X/2
11%
7.62
X/X
7%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.25
2/2
11%
5.27
2/X
9%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
48%
+0.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.4pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.57/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.34
-9% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
22.7 Crosses 17.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Korona Kielce
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.47
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
335 Passes 260
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2025 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 3-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
11.05.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-2 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
09.11.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
18.02.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
06.08.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
01.03.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
4-2
AWAY Korona Kielce
3.56 xG 1.96
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 40
21 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk got the better of Korona Kielce 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lechia Gdansk as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 52% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 48%, shots finished 17-18, expected goals 3.56 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Korona Kielce led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.33 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?

Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 49%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lechia Gdansk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
6 Apr 2026
13:15 Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice Analysis →
15:45 Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Analysis →
18:30 Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova Analysis →