Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2024

Shonan Bellmare
2-1 HT 1-1
Sagan Tosu
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.64
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
18%
4.43
X/2
11%
7.61
X/X
12%
4.61
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
11%
5.68
2/X
9%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Shonan Bellmare v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
-17% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.47/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.57
-14% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.8 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4

Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.75 xG 1.61
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 Passes 442
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.06.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-6 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
18.02.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-5 HT 1-3 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
29.10.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 3-0 HT 2-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
26.02.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
16.10.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
27.02.2021 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP

Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2-1
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.99 xG 0.89
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
360 Passes 320
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare nicked a narrow win over Sagan Tosu 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shonan Bellmare as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 53% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 47%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.99 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.67 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?

Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 45%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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