Montedio Yamagata 1-2 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 6 May 2026

Montedio Yamagata
1-2 HT 0-1
ThespaKusatsu Gunma
📅06/05/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
JAP2-3 – 2026

Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montedio Yamagata v ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -66%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses 24.5
– Yellow Cards 1.5

Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
560 Passes 244
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.02.2026 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2-3
14.09.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 4-1 HT 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
02.06.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
29.10.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
12.03.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
23.07.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2

Montedio Yamagata 1-2 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1-2
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
303 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ThespaKusatsu Gunma nicked a narrow win over Montedio Yamagata 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; ThespaKusatsu Gunma found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 51% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 49%, shots finished 15-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 0.83 for ThespaKusatsu Gunma.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Montedio Yamagata 1-2 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the JAP2-3 on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 38%, draw 26%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Montedio Yamagata), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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