FC Tokyo 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - İmparatorluk Cup, 6 Aug 2025

📅06/08/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.52
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
11%
7.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.03
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.25
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1
8%
7.58
X/2
13%
4.98
X/X
8%
5.67
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
18%
2.64
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.25 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-6.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.0pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 51%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.84/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-46% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +53%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.66 xG 1.76
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
274 Passes 425
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.06.2025 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-2 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
20.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
08.12.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-0 HT 2-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
24.02.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
06.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
24.05.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 44% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 56%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Tokyo and 0.83 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka?

FC Tokyo 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - İmparatorluk Cup on 06/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 35%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JPK More Japan - İmparatorluk Cup
6 Aug 2025
12:30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse Analysis →
12:30 Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →
13:00 Sagamihara vs Blaublitz Akita Analysis →
13:00 Montedio Yamagata vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
13:00 Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →