Gubbio 1-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 6 Sep 2025

📅06/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
5.31
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.8pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.6pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -23%
1.38/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.34
+12% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Perugia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 3
20.01.2025 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
15.09.2024 Perugia Perugia 1-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.03.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
12.11.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.03.2021 Gubbio Gubbio 3-2 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
21.11.2020 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
1-1
AWAY Perugia
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gubbio and Perugia shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gubbio had 59% of the ball to Perugia's 41%, shots finished 13-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gubbio and 0.83 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Perugia?

Gubbio 1-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 06/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 36%, draw 29%, Perugia 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gubbio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gubbio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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