Las Vegas Lights 1-1 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 28% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 23%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.46/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.13
-50% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
22.2 Crosses 12.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.30 xG 1.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
321 Passes 314
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-3 HT 2-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
03.09.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-5 HT 0-3 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.03.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 0-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
18.08.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-1 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
12.06.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 3-0 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
24.10.2021 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-1 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Vegas Lights
1-1
AWAY Orange County SC
0.58 xG 0.67
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
569 Passes 274
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights and Orange County SC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Las Vegas Lights at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 65% of the ball to Orange County SC's 35%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.58 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 2.00 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs Orange County SC?

Las Vegas Lights 1-1 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 52%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Las Vegas Lights), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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