Auckland 3-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.73
No
40%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
14%
9.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.01
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
21%
4.21
X/2
7%
10.8
X/X
7%
5.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.5
2/2
11%
8.46
2/X
5%
16.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.5 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
59%
-3.7pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.7pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
54%
+6.2pp
40%
BTTS No
46%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.89/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.84
-7% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 79%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
24.6 Crosses 11.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auckland
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
2.14 xG 0.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
310 Passes 320
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-2 Auckland Auckland AVUS
22.02.2025 Auckland Auckland 6-1 HT 3-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
07.12.2024 Auckland Auckland 2-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
02.11.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-2 HT 0-0 Auckland Auckland AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
3-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
4.95 xG 0.64
49% Ball Possession 51%
22 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
196 Passes 214
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland beat Wellington Phoenix 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Auckland as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Auckland had 49% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 51%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 4.95 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Auckland had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Auckland and 0.75 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?

Auckland 3-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Auckland 56%, draw 19%, Wellington Phoenix 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auckland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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