Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.21
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
21%
4.19
X/2
13%
9.86
X/X
7%
4.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.85
2/2
9%
8.2
2/X
8%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-3.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.8pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.74/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.06
-9% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +54%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
399 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
17.4 Crosses 12.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.65 xG 1.81
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
388 Passes 215
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
17.05.2025 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-0 HT 3-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
19.10.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
03.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
16.11.2019 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-3 HT 0-2 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-0
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.86 xG 0.94
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
478 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 16
4 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol nicked a narrow win over Machida Zelvia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 59% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 41%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.86 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.50 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 52%, draw 21%, Machida Zelvia 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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