FC Tokyo 1-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.61
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.23
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
21%
4.41
X/2
10%
9.64
X/X
8%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.1
2/2
7%
7.46
2/X
8%
15.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.82/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.36
+10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
385 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.6 Crosses 16.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.84 xG 0.71
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
327 Passes 543
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-3 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
13.07.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
27.04.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
11.11.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.04.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 2-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.05.2018 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.64 xG 0.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
428 Passes 333
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo and Albirex Niigata couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was FC Tokyo at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 56% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 44%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.64 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.17 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata?

FC Tokyo 1-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 53%, draw 25%, Albirex Niigata 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Tokyo), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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