Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.04
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.33
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
20%
5.17
X/2
15%
6.33
X/X
10%
4.55
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
13%
4.54
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.27/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.31
+3% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +58%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
17.6 Crosses 20.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.73 xG 1.59
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 Passes 210
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 33
23 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
30.06.2024 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 HT 1-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
28.04.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
29.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
26.02.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-2
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.28 xG 2.02
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 6
446 Passes 250
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama squeezed past Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Fagiano Okayama found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 61% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 39%, shots finished 17-22, expected goals 1.28 to 2.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.40 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 40%, draw 27%, Fagiano Okayama 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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