Maccabi Haifa 3-4 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
49%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.46
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 28% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.21
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
4%
16.4
X/1
10%
10.35
X/2
11%
3.82
X/X
18%
5.27
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.07
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
18%
+4.5pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
49%
Away Win
58%
-8.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maccabi Haifa EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 62%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.56/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/0.54
-100% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
232 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 81%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
16.1 Crosses 28.8
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maccabi Haifa
3-4
AWAY Fiorentina
0.72 xG 1.77
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 3
180 Passes 515
67% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 40
4 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maccabi Haifa vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina nicked a narrow win over Maccabi Haifa 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maccabi Haifa had 31% of the ball to Fiorentina's 69%, shots finished 7-23, expected goals 0.72 to 1.77.

What was the final score of Maccabi Haifa vs Fiorentina?

Maccabi Haifa 3-4 Fiorentina in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maccabi Haifa vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Maccabi Haifa 23%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 49%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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