Benfica 2-2 Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.7
X/1
18%
3.84
X/2
6%
10.9
X/X
9%
5.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
8%
8.27
2/X
6%
16.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
59%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Rangers EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
2.99/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.41
-1% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
34.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.1 Crosses 12.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Rangers
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.54 xG 1.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
472 Passes 458
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.11.2020 Rangers Rangers 2-2 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica AVL
05.11.2020 Benfica Benfica 3-3 HT 1-2 Rangers Rangers AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
2-2
AWAY Rangers
2.46 xG 1.27
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 4
463 Passes 180
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
52 Box Touches 14
37 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica and Rangers shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Benfica had 68% of the ball to Rangers's 32%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 2.46 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Benfica and 2.50 for Rangers.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Rangers?

Benfica 2-2 Rangers in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Benfica 56%, draw 24%, Rangers 20%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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