Karabağ 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
53%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 25% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.35
1/2
10%
22.3
1/X
6%
17.55
X/1
9%
11.9
X/2
20%
3.69
X/X
11%
5.86
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.89
2/X
7%
16.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
53%
Away Win
61%
-8.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.0pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 66%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.69/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.10
-67% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
11.1 Crosses 13.4
3.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.85 xG 2.08
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
274 Passes 494
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 32
8 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AVL
26.10.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 HT 3-1 Karabağ Karabağ AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karabağ
2-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.81 xG 1.27
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
252 Passes 541
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
27 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ and Bayer Leverkusen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Karabağ had 34% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 66%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.81 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Karabağ and 3.00 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Karabağ 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 23%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 53%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVL More UEFA Europa League
7 Mar 2024
20:45 Roma vs Brighton & Hove Albion Analysis →
20:45 Sparta Prag vs Liverpool Analysis →
23:00 Marsilya vs Villarreal Analysis →
23:00 Freiburg vs West Ham United Analysis →
23:00 Benfica vs Rangers Analysis →
23:00 Milan vs Slavia Prag Analysis →