Milan 4-2 Slavia Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 25% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.76
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.15
X/1
16%
3.44
X/2
11%
14.0
X/X
13%
5.76
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
8%
12.0
2/X
5%
20.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-13.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+10.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Slavia Prag EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
2.11/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.74
+29% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
413 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
17.8 Crosses 13.6
0.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
4-2
AWAY Slavia Prag
2.47 xG 0.49
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
503 Passes 237
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Milan vs Slavia Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan got the better of Slavia Prag 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Milan had 65% of the ball to Slavia Prag's 35%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.47 to 0.49.

What was the final score of Milan vs Slavia Prag?

Milan 4-2 Slavia Prag in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Slavia Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Milan 52%, draw 24%, Slavia Prag 24%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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