Marsilya 4-0 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
14%
4.14
X/2
10%
9.56
X/X
12%
5.87
2/1
6%
20.95
2/2
14%
6.76
2/X
8%
14.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-13.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+10.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.8pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 25%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +22%
2.33/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.90
+35% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 80%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
23.1 Crosses 13.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Villarreal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
31.07.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal HAZ
21.07.2018 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
4-0
AWAY Villarreal
3.05 xG 0.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 3
456 Passes 292
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya ran out comfortable winners over Villarreal 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Marsilya had 60% of the ball to Villarreal's 40%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 3.05 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Marsilya and 1.00 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Villarreal?

Marsilya 4-0 Villarreal in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 42%, draw 26%, Villarreal 32%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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