Sparta Prag 1-5 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.57 — our 29% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.73
1/2
9%
20.9
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
14%
10.75
X/2
18%
4.01
X/X
10%
6.05
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
1.98
2/X
6%
14.95
Value flag · X/1 at 10.75 — our 14% vs market 6.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
19%
+12.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-12.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 62%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -51% / -51%
1.37/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.00
+145% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -72%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
15.6 Crosses 31.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Prag
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Liverpool
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
24.02.2011 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag AVL
17.02.2011 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Prag
1-5
AWAY Liverpool
0.88 xG 2.76
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 3
299 Passes 584
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sparta Prag vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool ran out comfortable winners over Sparta Prag 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sparta Prag had 37% of the ball to Liverpool's 63%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 0.88 to 2.76.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Sparta Prag and 0.50 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Sparta Prag vs Liverpool?

Sparta Prag 1-5 Liverpool in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Prag vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag 31%, draw 23%, Liverpool 46%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ BTTS No
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