Freiburg 1-0 West Ham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
4.24
6+ Goals
13%
20.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.24 — our 23% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.88
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
12%
5.42
X/2
10%
5.44
X/X
13%
4.06
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
20%
3.9
2/X
5%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY West Ham United EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.44/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.32
+61% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
355 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 76%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
24.9 Crosses 14.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
0W-0D-2L
AWAY West Ham United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.00 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
434 Passes 472
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
14.12.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 2-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AVL
05.10.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-2 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-0
AWAY West Ham United
1.51 xG 1.45
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
480 Passes 340
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 26
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs West Ham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg edged past West Ham United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Freiburg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Freiburg had 58% of the ball to West Ham United's 42%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.51 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, West Ham United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Freiburg and 2.00 for West Ham United.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs West Ham United?

Freiburg 1-0 West Ham United in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs West Ham United?

Before kick-off our model rated an West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 36%, draw 26%, West Ham United 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (West Ham United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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