Mura 3-1 ND Primorje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY ND Primorje EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.57/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.35
+13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
2W-1D-3L
AWAY ND Primorje
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2025 ND Primorje ND Primorje 1-0 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN
31.08.2025 Mura Mura 2-2 HT 2-1 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
17.05.2025 ND Primorje ND Primorje 2-0 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN
15.03.2025 Mura Mura 3-1 HT 1-0 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
30.11.2024 ND Primorje ND Primorje 1-0 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN
14.09.2024 Mura Mura 4-0 HT 2-0 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
3-1
AWAY ND Primorje
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mura vs ND Primorje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura beat ND Primorje 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mura as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mura had 47% of the ball to ND Primorje's 53%, shots finished 15-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ND Primorje led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mura and 1.17 for ND Primorje.

What was the final score of Mura vs ND Primorje?

Mura 3-1 ND Primorje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs ND Primorje?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mura win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mura 43%, draw 25%, ND Primorje 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mura), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mura) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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