Crotone 1-2 Brindisi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.34
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
27%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.7pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+5.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brindisi EU Bookmakers 16%
-11% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.48/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.67
-15% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
459 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Brindisi
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Brindisi Brindisi 0-2 HT 0-1 Crotone Crotone İTC
08.11.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-0 HT 1-0 Brindisi Brindisi İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
1-2
AWAY Brindisi
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crotone vs Brindisi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brindisi nicked a narrow win over Crotone 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Crotone at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crotone had 54% of the ball to Brindisi's 46%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Crotone had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Crotone and 0.00 for Brindisi.

What was the final score of Crotone vs Brindisi?

Crotone 1-2 Brindisi in the Italy - Serie C on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs Brindisi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Crotone 57%, draw 24%, Brindisi 19%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crotone) ✗ BTTS No
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