SPAL 3-0 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 7 Apr 2024

SPAL
3-0 HT 2-0
Gubbio
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.48
Over
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.17
2-3
40%
1.81
4-5
18%
5.78
6+
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.4pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio The Market 32%
-24% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.00/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.13
-19% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SPAL
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Gubbio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
02.12.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 0-0 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
01.02.2015 SPAL SPAL 1-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
3-0
AWAY Gubbio
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL cruised past Gubbio 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; SPAL found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, SPAL had 40% of the ball to Gubbio's 60%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, SPAL had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for SPAL and 0.00 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Gubbio?

SPAL 3-0 Gubbio in the Italy - Serie C on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split SPAL 36%, draw 32%, Gubbio 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SPAL), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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