Brondby 2-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.12
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
11%
5.07
X/2
11%
6.73
X/X
9%
4.67
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.83
2/X
12%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brondby EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
1.48/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.34
-9% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +28%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
386 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.0 Crosses 20.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brondby
1W-1D-4L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.39 xG 1.32
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 353
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Brondby Brondby 4-2 HT 2-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
08.12.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 0-0 Brondby Brondby DAK
21.10.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAN
11.08.2024 Brondby Brondby 0-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
26.05.2024 Brondby Brondby 2-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
14.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brondby
2-1
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.78 xG 1.53
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 496
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 38
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brondby vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brondby edged past AGF Aarhus 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brondby as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Brondby had 40% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 60%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.78 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brondby and 1.67 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

Brondby 2-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brondby win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brondby 41%, draw 29%, AGF Aarhus 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brondby) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brondby) ✗ Under 2.5
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