Sarpsborg 08 3-1 Sandefjord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 7 May 2025

📅07/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.97
2-3 Goals
36%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
7.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.69
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
16%
5.07
X/2
9%
7.5
X/X
9%
5.94
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.15
2/2
19%
4.88
2/X
6%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 32%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
3.75/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
+92% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sandefjord
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.05 xG 1.25
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
386 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.08.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-1 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
12.05.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 4-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
27.01.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-0 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
06.08.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 5-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
02.07.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 6-1 HT 3-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
02.10.2022 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 saw off Sandefjord 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sarpsborg 08 as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 2.00 for Sandefjord.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?

Sarpsborg 08 3-1 Sandefjord in the Norway - NM Cup on 07/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 43%, draw 23%, Sandefjord 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sarpsborg 08), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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