Columbus Crew 4-0 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.63
Over 2.5
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
6.03
2-3 Goals
40%
2.08
4-5 Goals
23%
2.57
6+ Goals
10%
5.71
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.03 — our 27% vs market 12.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-12.0pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.4pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.96/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.87
-3% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.4 Crosses 11.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Columbus Crew
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Toronto FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 Passes 410
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
12.03.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
30.06.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 0-2 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
12.03.2022 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-1 HT 0-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
29.05.2021 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-1 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
13.05.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Columbus Crew
4-0
AWAY Toronto FC
1.98 xG 0.36
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
446 Passes 289
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew swept aside Toronto FC 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Columbus Crew as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Columbus Crew had 59% of the ball to Toronto FC's 41%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.98 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Columbus Crew had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.00 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC?

Columbus Crew 4-0 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 57%, draw 23%, Toronto FC 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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