Kashima Antlers 3-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 7 Aug 2024

📅07/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.0
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
15%
4.01
X/2
9%
10.55
X/X
12%
6.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.75
2/2
8%
7.55
2/X
6%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.75 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.3pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.3pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.80/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.71
-14% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
385 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.7 Crosses 15.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.59 xG 1.40
52% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
325 Passes 308
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 4-2 HT 2-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
19.08.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
27.05.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-2 HT 1-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
16.09.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
25.05.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 4-4 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
27.11.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
3-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.72 xG 0.58
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
335 Passes 482
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
34 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers ran out comfortable winners over Sagan Tosu 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kashima Antlers as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 43% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 57%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.72 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kashima Antlers and 2.00 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Sagan Tosu?

Kashima Antlers 3-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 07/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 54%, draw 24%, Sagan Tosu 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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