Kyoto Sanga 3-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 7 Aug 2024

📅07/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
43%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.62
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.48
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.39
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
11%
5.79
X/2
17%
4.96
X/X
9%
4.0
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.52
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.9pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
43%
Away Win
38%
+5.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 42%
-29% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.21/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.18
-27% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
347 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 72%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
22.1 Crosses 17.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.38 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
253 Passes 253
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
16.07.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
25.02.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
08.10.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
11.06.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
04.06.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 6-1 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
3-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga squeezed past Nagoya Grampus 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nagoya Grampus at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 57% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 43%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.83 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Nagoya Grampus?

Kyoto Sanga 3-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 07/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 33%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 43%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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