Sagan Tosu 4-2 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Apr 2024

Sagan Tosu
4-2 HT 2-1
Kashima Antlers
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Sagan Tosu vs Kashima Antlers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
41%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 34% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.26
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
5%
15.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
8.88
X/2
17%
3.94
X/X
16%
4.52
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.35
2/X
6%
14.8
Value flag · X/1 at 8.88 — our 15% vs market 7.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
22%
+10.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
41%
Away Win
53%
-11.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sagan Tosu v Kashima Antlers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 56%
+10% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -9%
1.03/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.00
+6% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 82%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
18.4 Crosses 20.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4

Sagan Tosu vs Kashima Antlers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.01 xG 1.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 Passes 313
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
27.05.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-2 HT 1-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
16.09.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
25.05.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 4-4 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
27.11.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
22.05.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP

Sagan Tosu 4-2 Kashima Antlers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
4-2
AWAY Kashima Antlers
3.18 xG 1.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 8
283 Passes 317
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 51
18 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu saw off Kashima Antlers 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Kashima Antlers at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 47% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 53%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 3.18 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.83 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Kashima Antlers?

Sagan Tosu 4-2 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 32%, draw 27%, Kashima Antlers 41%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
20 Apr 2024
08:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
08:00 Consadole Sapporo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
09:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Jubilo Iwata Analysis →
09:00 Shonan Bellmare vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
10:00 Urawa Red Diamonds vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →
10:00 Kawasaki Frontale vs Tokyo Verdy Analysis →