Ceuta 2-1 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 7 Aug 2026

Ceuta
2-1 HT 2-1
Malaga
📅07/08/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.19
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
25.0
1/X
5%
12.65
X/1
16%
6.42
X/2
11%
5.49
X/X
14%
4.95
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
21%
3.29
2/X
5%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -37%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -46%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Malaga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
0.51 xG 2.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
361 Passes 388
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.05.2026 Ceuta Ceuta 1-4 HT 0-3 Malaga Malaga İS2
11.01.2026 Malaga Malaga 2-1 HT 2-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS2
07.04.2024 Malaga Malaga 1-1 HT 1-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
14.01.2024 Ceuta Ceuta 3-2 HT 1-0 Malaga Malaga İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
2-1
AWAY Malaga
7 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta squeezed past Malaga 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Malaga at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, shots finished 7-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Malaga led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ceuta and 2.25 for Malaga.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Malaga?

Ceuta 2-1 Malaga in the Friendlies on 07/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 34%, draw 25%, Malaga 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Malaga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malaga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
7 Aug 2026
11:00 Intercity Alicante vs Villarreal II Analysis →
11:30 Almeria vs Cordoba Analysis →
14:00 Melbourne City vs Palermo Analysis →
15:00 Aston Villa vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
18:00 Südtirol vs Virtus Verona Analysis →
19:30 Huesca vs Andorra CF Analysis →