Ceuta vs Malaga Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ceuta v Malaga — Team-Based Signals
Ceuta vs Malaga Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Ceuta 1-4 Malaga — Actual Match Statistics
Malaga cruised past Ceuta 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Malaga as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Ceuta had 48% of the ball to Malaga's 52%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.69 to 2.17.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ceuta and 1.67 for Malaga.
What was the final score of Ceuta vs Malaga?
Ceuta 1-4 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Malaga?
Before kick-off our model rated an Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 32%, draw 21%, Malaga 47%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malaga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.