Deportivo La Coruna 1-3 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 7 Dec 2025

Deportivo La Coruna
1-3 HT 1-0
CD Castellon
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Deportivo La Coruna vs CD Castellon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.37
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
9%
5.41
X/2
12%
6.46
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
12%
27.0
2/2
16%
4.45
2/X
11%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo La Coruna v CD Castellon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Coruna EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.44/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.55
-12% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
20.1 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Deportivo La Coruna vs CD Castellon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.63 xG 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
359 Passes 312
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.03.2025 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-2 HT 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS2
19.12.2024 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 5-1 HT 3-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
02.06.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-4 HT 1-2 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS3
29.05.2024 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3
11.06.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 4-3 HT 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS3
04.06.2023 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3

Deportivo La Coruna 1-3 CD Castellon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
1-3
AWAY CD Castellon
0.94 xG 2.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
255 Passes 337
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Coruna vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon got the better of Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; CD Castellon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Deportivo La Coruna had 44% of the ball to CD Castellon's 56%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.94 to 2.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo La Coruna had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.67 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Coruna vs CD Castellon?

Deportivo La Coruna 1-3 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Coruna vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Coruna win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Coruna 38%, draw 28%, CD Castellon 34%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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