Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
28%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.6
Over 2.5
50%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.46
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
4.45
6+ Goals
10%
23.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.45 — our 23% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.71
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
16%
5.35
X/2
13%
5.94
X/X
18%
3.75
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
9%
4.37
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.8pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.8pp
28%
Away Win
32%
-4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
59%
-8.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
41%
+8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
0.99/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.18
-21% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.1 Crosses 17.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.84 xG 1.63
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
258 Passes 363
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
01.03.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
24.11.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
05.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 1-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
07.10.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.02.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
1-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.00 xG 0.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
209 Passes 323
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sevilla at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sevilla had 42% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 58%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.00 to 0.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sevilla and 0.83 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 42%, draw 30%, Rayo Vallecano 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sevilla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✓ BTTS Yes
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